Current market study forecasts annual growth of 17 percent for bio-based polymers through 2028

Hürth, Germany – The year 2023 was a promising year for bio-based polymers: PLA capacities have been increased by almost 50 %, and at the same time polyamide capacities are steadily increasing, as well as epoxy resin production. Capacities for 100 % bio-based PE have been expanded and PE and PP made from bio-based naphtha are being further established with growing volumes. Current and future expansions for PHAs are still on the horizon. After hinting at a comeback in 2022 bio-based PET production dropped in 2023 by 50 %.
In 2023, the total production volume of bio-based polymers was 4.4 million tons, which is 1 % of the total production volume of fossil-based polymers. The CAGR of bio-based polymers is, with 17 %, significantly higher than the overall growth of the polymer market (2–3 %) – this is expected to continue until 2028 (Figure 1).
The new market and trend report “Bio based Building Blocks and Polymers – Global Capacities, Production and Trends 2023–2028”, written by international biopolymer expert group of the nova-Institute, shows capacities and contains production data for 17 commercially available, bio-based polymers in the year 2023 and a forecast for 2028.
From the total 4.4 million tons of bio-based polymers produced in 2023, cellulose acetate (CA), with a bio-based content of 50 % and epoxy resins with a bio-based content of 45 % made up over the half of the bio-based production, 24 % and 30 %. Followed by 100 % bio-based polylactic acid (PLA) with 11 %, polyamides (PA) (60 % bio-based content) with 8 % and 30 % bio-based polyurethanes (PUR) with 7 %. Polyethylene (PE) (available with 100 and 30 % bio-based content) and polytrimethylene terephthalate (PTT) (31 % bio-based content) had a share of 6 and 5 % (Figure 2). The share of polybutylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) and starch-containing polymer compounds (SCPC) was below 5 %. Aliphatic polycarbonates (APC; linear and circular), casein polymers (CP), ethylene propylene diene monomer rubber (EPDM), polybutylene succinate (PBS), polyethylene furanoate (PEF) and polypropylene (PP) had a share below 1 % of the total bio-based polymer production volume and are not depicted.
Several global brands are already expanding their feedstock portfolio to include sources of renewable carbon, CO2, recycling and, in particular biomass, in addition to fossil-based sources, thereby increasing the demand for bio based and biodegradable polymers. At the same time, however, there is a lack of political support in Europe, which still only promotes biofuels and bioenergy. By contrast, supportive legislation is in place in Asia and particularly in the US drives demand.
For 2023, the updated market report includes the following features on 438 pages: Coverage of 16 bio-based building blocks and all 17 commercially available bio-based polymers, comprehensive information on the capacity development from 2018 to 2028, production data for the year 2022 and 2023, per bio-based polymer and analyses of market developments and producers per building block and polymer, so that readers can quickly gain an overview of developments that go far beyond capacity and production figures. Additionally, the market study offers a statistical overview on “Mass Balance and Free Attribution (MBFA)” products available worldwide based on an extensive analysis of the ISCC database, a detailed elaboration on the current European policy for bio-based polymers as well as a comprehensive summary on biodegradability and biodegradable polymers. This information is supported by over 70 figures, over 50 tables and 232 company profiles.
The data published annually by European Bioplastics and the data published by Plastics Europe for 2022 are taken from the market report published by the nova-Institute, albeit with a smaller selection of bio-based polymers and application areas in each case. The report is now available in full length as well as a freely available short version here: https://renewable-carbon.eu/commercial-reports.